Lost Deathwatch.

Ok all – here we are. It’s the last season, so all bets are off. Sure, they continue to bring back characters we thought are gone, or at least, there are characters that we thought were gone are going to be making an appearance at some point this season (Flashback, Flash-sideways, or coming back as a smoke monster).

BUT – nothing says “this is the last season” then the untimely death of a few loved characters. Or a few hated characters. Looking at what’s ahead, and the trail of carnage left behind, let’s see if we can put a “Death Positive Percentage” to each of the main characters left – what’s indicated is the chance of that person dying before the end of the season.

A couple of notes:

  • For the sake of making this easy, we’re focusing on the main characters we have grown to love/hate. New people like Lennon and Dogen – screw ’em – they may have a lot of talking time, but they are just there to confuse/move the plot forward
  • Not even the guys from the ship. Farraday, Miles, Frank – bit players. Sure, they’ll do something momentous, but if they died tomorrow, it’d be with the same reaction as Strawberry Shortcake from the boat. “Oh well.”
  • Everyone starts with 2% chance of death – there’s the small chance they are just gonna blow up the island again, and kill everyone on it. I know, I know. Unlikely – but let’s face it – this is LOST

These names are in no particular order, then the order in which I thought of ’em:

Sun One of the candidates. It’s either her, or Jin – we don’t know yet because I don’t think the writers have figured this one out yet. I’m gonna go with Sun as the Candidate, because there needs to be at least one girl in the club – and she has always had a will to live. Plus, it would becliche for her to die once she’s reunited with Jin. 20% Chance

Jin A possible candidate (see previous) – the enforcer with a heart of gold. As I’ve read elsewhere (can’t remember source) A few years alone on this island is more than any amount of marriage counseling could have done. Sun was gonna bail on him at one point, and now, he’s a kick-ass player that gets shit done on the island. A little lost now, but how tragic would it be that he gives up his life soon after them reuniting – to save Sun? Yeah, America would cry. 70% Chance

Kate Honestly, the most annoying of all the Losties. She bounces from guy-to-guy, never quite making her own way. I guess that’s what this season is all about – her trying to make her piece with Claire and Aaron, and blah blah blah. Much like the Nikki and Paulo deaths – I think there would be a cheer sweeping across America and the time zones once she bites the dust. However, Cuse and Lindelolf would probably keep her alive just to piss us off. 75% Chance

Jack A candidate. THE candidate himself. This was the first guy we saw when the show started, and everyone had the same thought… “Party of 5” all grown-up. So, the fact that Christian and sister Claire are all wrapped up in this, he’s a major player. His death would be too jarring to the world that’s been created (Island and Sideways) – this guy can’t die. Even though the writers love to throw curveballs – this is not one they would let fly. 5% Chance

Sawyer No way. If this guy dies, then any humor left with the show dies with it. The ying to Jack’s yang – he’s the balancing force for the battle of the island. Sure, it’s been awhile since we heard him call someone “Freckles” – but he did a great Twitter-inspired 140 word review/plot outline of “Of Mice and Men” last week. That shit can not die. 5% Chance

What? Hurley die? Are you on crack? He’s the one who TALKS to the dead people. If he dies, how do we know what magic Jacob is up to now? Kill of Hurley and you lose any ability to bring other characters back from the dead. Remember, Miles only “talks” to dead people – he doesn’t SEE them… Besides, he already lost Libby and Charlie – we already feel sad for him. This guy gets to live right up to the bitter end. Hurley’s a survivor. Period. 2% Chance

Sayid The Iraqi torturer with a heart of gold. Remember when THAT was relevant? Some say this guy is already dead. Some say he’s gonna become another disciple like Claire for Smokey. Some say he was just never the same after Shannon died. Some are just tired of him in general. (count me in that last group). He’s been wandering for a purpose for too long (how come we never hear of ‘Nadia’ anymore?!) – I think his death will be some sort of ‘final act’ of him receiving forgiveness for his life. 85% Chance

Desmond Exactly WHO is Desmond. You can tell who’s a fan of Lost and who isn’t just by muttering, “Not Penny’s boat.” BOOM. Knowing looks or a glazed over expression tell you exactly who you are dealing with. Let’s just say it, Desmond can’t die. He’s somehow entwined, along with his mother and Farraday, into the mythology of the island, and represent the 3-Toed gods and Dogen’s for the next generation of protectors/destroyers of the island. He’s ethereal and eternal and just fucking cool. You kill of the cool characters, not the fucking cool characters. 5% Chance

Claire Do we even care anymore? Much like Michael/Walt – her baby has some importance to the island, but is it just some red herring to get another woman on the island? Since it’s been so long since we’ve seen her, and now that we do, we see that she’s been eating alone in the jungle with an extra helping of crazysauce – she’s kinda lost all significance. She’s become a puppet of sorts for Smokey – and whether she regains her sanity for the sake of her child… Kinda don’t care. However, she’s a mom, and you don’t kill moms on primetime TV – so it’s pretty unlikely. 20% Chance

Ben Big Bad Ben. Over and above Jacob and Smokey – the single most evil guy to ever come on the island. Hell, even Widmore isn’t up to Ben’s nastiness. Remember, Widmore sent the guys to kill his daughter, but Widmore didn’t pull the trigger. Ben – he’s killed left and right, always in the name of some higher purpose. I think this is a character that dies in the act of redemption. Kind of cliche – but really, where else has this character left to go? 80% Chance

Richard The never-aging agent of Jacob on the island. Let’s face it, he’s been around for 100 years or so (at least, that’s what we’re led to believe) – I think it’s time for this guy to retire. He has served his usefulness, Jacob is dead, and he’s a scared little kitty now. His death will be along the same lines of Juliet’s detonation of the bomb. It’s gonna happen, and we will be sad because he was a pretty kick ass character, but his number’s up. 98% Chance

Rose and Bernard Seriously people? To even consider the death of these two is like thinking about when your grandparents are going to get offed. Much like moms, you don’t kill old people unless you have a really good reason. Like they are a Nazi. Then it’s ok. Otherwise, you let them live out their life after the show is finished. Period. These two die, and you will have America just scratching their heads muttering “WTF?” 3% Chance

All character images from Lostpedia. Thanks for having the friendly reference!